Territorial impact of transport emissions

Baseline scenario


Enhanced infrastructure


Pricing scenario


Observations for policy

If European transport policies were to be implemented as planned in 2009, traffic emissions would increase pervasively. Similarly, infrastructure enhancements would lead to increasing emissions which, for some regions, would represent more than double. Against this background, the introduction of regulatory measures and transport pricing would increase traffic emissions but in turn would not take place in many regions.

Policy context

European Union transports policies aim at improve mobility bearing in mind energy-efficiency and sustainability. However, the transport sector has the second largest greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union. More than two thirds of transport-related greenhouse gas emissions come from road transport. With regard to this, significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions from transport are required if the European Union wants to achieve its goals in the long-term.

Map interpretation

The map shows where the EU transport policies by 2030 will lead to increasing emissions from transport. Three scenarios of future transport policies have been developed:

Concepts and methods

The model is applied to one indicator of transport policy, namely GHG emissions. Different thresholds are aopted with respect to three different scenarios about future EU transport policies. Regions are flagged if emissions are expected to exceed critical thresholds. Here, critical thresholds for emissions are defined as the absence of increases compared with the present condition. The limit is strict (but looser with respect to the Kyoto Protocol on global GHG emission reduction) and partly unfair with respect to regions with current low GHG emissions. The three levels of ‘flagging’ is coloured as follows: increase between 0 and 50 per cent (yellow), increase between 50 and 100 per cent (orange), and increase beyond 100 per cent (red).